The key players in Republicans’ last-ditch effort to kill Obamacare

It wouldn’t be 2017 if congressional Republicans weren’t a few votes shy of passing legislation to kill Obamacare.

And it wouldn’t be 2017 if there weren’t dual cases to made that they might actually succeed — and that the likelihood of success looks extremely thin.

The advent of the so-called Graham-Cassidy plan means the GOP has another chance to rebound from its blistering defeats on health care and fulfill its long-standing promise to overhaul the Affordable Care Act. Doing this could take health coverage or medical benefits from millions of people, but with leaders desperate for a strategic victory and less than two weeks to pass budget-related legislation with 51 rather than 60 Senate votes, they are working hard to convince undecided members to vote yes.

Success is not yet guaranteed, of course. Notably, Congress’s nonpartisan budget analyst has not said how much the bill would cost or how many people could lose health insurance if it’s enacted. But proponents of Graham-Cassidy said they had momentum as the week began. Remember: the bill dies in the Senate only if more than two Republicans vote “no.”

As the next two weeks unfold, here are all the players to watch, starting with the senators expected to determine the bill’s fate.

• Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine)

Collins is considered the most likely of any Republican senator to vote “no” on the legislation, which would transfer billions in federal health-care spending and policy authority to states. Collins has already expressed concerns about it, according to the Bangor Daily News, and Planned Parenthood’s strong opposition to the bill could give her further pause.

During the last health-care vote, Collins didn’t hesitate to be one of the three Republicans to vote against the party’s legislation. Without a significant rewrite (hint: losing a provision to defund Planned Parenthood), it’s hard to see her switching positions on a bill critics have called even more harmful.

• Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)

Like Collins, Murkowski was one of the three Republicans to vote against the GOP’s last attempt to undo Obamacare. And like Collins, she received warm thanks in her state after taking that vote. Even with the elimination of a provision to defund Planned Parenthood, it’s not clear how the new bill, which by some accounts would harm even more Alaskans’ coverage, would move Murkowski to yes. But Murkowski tends to be somewhat more open to legislative dealmaking. So far, she’s been silent on Graham-Cassidy.

• Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)

Paul announced his opposition to the bill on Friday, calling it “Obamacare Lite” and rebuffing sponsor Bill Cassidy’s (R-La.) offer to go over the details. On Monday, he said there was nothing that could change his mind.

Yet: Paul’s past comments suggest he could be open to cajoling, particularly if leaders are one vote short or the bill undergoes changes.

“If they cannot get to 50 votes, if they get to [an] impasse, I’ve been telling the leadership for months now that I will vote for a repeal. It doesn’t have to be 100 percent repeal. … That’s what I want, but if you offer me 90 percent repeal, I’d probably vote for it. I might vote for 80 percent repeal,” Paul told ABC News in June.

• Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)

McCain stopped the GOP’s last health-care push with a dramatic thumbs-down on the Senate floor. This time, he’s vacillating in a way that suggests his vote is up for grabs.

When asked about Graham-Cassidy earlier this month, McCain said he would support it — then backtracked in a statement about assessing its impact on Arizona. McCain also said he wanted to consult with Gov. Doug Ducey (R-Ariz.), who has since endorsed the plan.

Not all signs point to McCain voting yes. On Sunday, he cautioned Republicans against the instinct to “ram through our proposal” without Democratic votes and complimented a separate, bipartisan effort to draft health-care legislation within the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

That effort is “doing fine,” McCain told CBS. “Bring it to the floor. Have debate. Have amendments.”

• Other possible Senate swing votes

Collins, Murkowski, Paul and McCain are worth watching closely as the week proceeds. But there could always be other Republicans who come out in opposition to Graham-Cassidy, throwing leaders’ math into doubt.

Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) toldreporters Monday they were still reviewing the bill. Expect reporters to continue to grill them about it.

• Republican governors whose states expanded Medicaid

Arizona’s Doug Ducey, Nevada’s Brian Sandoval, Massachusetts’s Charlie Baker and Ohio’s John Kasich all fit into an interesting political category — GOP governors whose states expanded Medicaid under Obamacare.

This means their states have a lot to lose from Graham-Cassidy’s Medicaid cuts. It doesn’t mean that the governors will all oppose the bill, however: while Baker and Kasich have both criticized the plan, Ducey endorsed it on Monday.

It’s important to track the governors’ positions because they could influence how Republican senators from their states vote. After all, it was Sandoval’s opposition to a health-care bill this summer that drove Heller to oppose it. (Heller supported the last version of an overhaul, known as the “skinny repeal,” and he is now an original co-sponsor of Graham-Cassidy.)

• The Congressional Budget Office

This group of nonpartisan budget analysts holds enormous power in the current debate.

The CBO is charged with assessing bills’ impact on the federal budget before lawmakers vote on them, and it has often calculated how health-care measures would affect health insurance premiums and the number of people with coverage.

These are politically potent figures that can determine how centrist lawmakers vote on health-care bills. But the CBO said Monday that it won’t be able to release them “for at least several weeks” in the case of Graham-Cassidy. This means senators will decide their positions on the bill without CBO’s analysis of how it will affect premiums and coverage. It also means that if the Senate holds a vote on the bill, it would likely happen before the CBO releases its complete report.

• Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.)

These are the plan’s four original co-sponsors, and their unique political circumstances help illustrate why they joined on the bill.

Graham is up for reelection in 2020 and could always throw his hat in the ring for president again. As a serious critic of President Trump, he will be looking for ways to reach out to voters who support the White House. Being the first name on the bill that repeals Obamacare would be a major selling point for either a senatorial or presidential campaign.

Cassidy, a doctor, is a more junior member of the Senate who wants to shape health-care policy. Before partnering with Graham, he was working with Collins on a separate plan.

Heller is up for reelection in 2018. His responsibility for a bill that cuts the Medicaid program could help him fend off a Republican primary, but it could ultimately make him more vulnerable, not less, in a general election in his purple state, especially if Sandoval announces his opposition to the bill.

Johnson is from a state that didn’t expand Medicaid and whose governor, Scott Walker, supports the block-grant concept at the heart of the proposal. There’s little political downside for him to sign on. Johnson is also a longtime critic of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who by some measures has the most to lose with the latest push.

• Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.)

Republican congressional leaders face the prospect of ending the first year of GOP control in Washington without enacting the party’s central policy priority of the last seven years. If Graham-Cassidy passes, their victory could relieve that burden and potentially help shore up their relationships with President Trump. McConnell is under particular pressure, since it was the Senate that sunk the most recent attempt to pass a bill. If the latest effort fails, McConnell’s culpability for inaction will only grow.

• President Trump

Trump seems to have all but forgotten about health care, choosing instead to focus on tax reform and immigration. If he starts cajoling lawmakers, it could bring some undecideds toward yes — or depending on his level of tact, push them toward no.

Elise Viebeck

Amber Phillips contributed to this report.